The market hasn’t posted a new high in the past three weeks, but its resilience remains impressive. Despite concerns over slowing growth, tariff uncertainty, and speculation around a potential AI capital expenditure bubble, dip buyers continue to step in with confidence.
For the past month, our team has been calling for a 4–7% market pullback—a move that has yet to materialize. However, we believe there’s still a strong likelihood this correction will occur sometime in September. Unless non-farm payrolls data reveals another weak print, we expect to be buyers on that pullback. At the time of writing (Thursday), payroll data had yet to be released. We’ll share our thoughts on the results during our Friday Live session this week.
🧾 Economic Data Recap
This week’s economic indicators have painted a mixed picture:
ISM Manufacturing came in below consensus, though it showed a slight improvement over the previous month.
ISM Services, on the other hand, rebounded strongly after last month’s notable slowdown—a positive sign for a service-driven economy like ours.
Job openings surprised to the downside, hitting their lowest level in a year. However, initial jobless claims remain low, signaling continued labor market stability.
These data points align with the Fed’s latest Beige Book, which highlighted business hesitancy around hiring but offered no major shift in sentiment regarding layoffs. Companies appear cautious, likely due to the evolving tariff landscape—which is understandable in the current climate.
📅 Looking Ahead: Key Economic Data Releases
Here’s what we’re watching this week:
Monday: Consumer Credit
Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Index
Wednesday: PPI (expected to decelerate significantly from last month)
Thursday: CPI
Core CPI is expected to remain relatively stable
Headline CPI may show a slight uptick on a monthly basis
Annualized Headline CPI is forecasted to rise to 2.9%
Friday: University of Michigan Sentiment (NSA)
Could higher-than-expected inflation readings cause the Fed to hesitate on a September rate cut? Possibly. However, considering the continued signs of a softening labor market, we believe the time to resume rate cuts is approaching.
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— HPK Provident Advisors
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts may not develop as predicted.