The Super Bowl of Finance
Last week felt like the Super Bowl of Finance — not just because of the volume of major events, but because of their potential long-term impact. From the Fed meeting to earnings, jobs, inflation, and trade, markets were pulled in every direction.
🏛️ Federal Reserve: Rates Hold Steady, But Voices Diverge
As expected, the Fed held rates in the 4.25%–4.50% range. However, two FOMC members voted in favor of a rate cut — signaling growing internal debate.
In his remarks, Chair Powell emphasized that inflation remains above target and employment remains strong, though he acknowledged emerging risks to both mandates. Markets responded by lowering expectations for a September rate cut.
Equities and bonds both declined following the announcement, as the Fed reiterated it expects tariffs to average around 15% — with the full economic impact still unfolding.
🌍 Trade: Progress with Key Partners
We saw incremental progress on trade, with Europe, Mexico, and South Korea finalizing agreements.
President Trump has indicated he’ll use executive orders to impose tariffs on nations that haven’t struck deals by August 1. This could reignite market volatility, especially in manufacturing and global supply chains.
📊 Economic Data: Mixed But Resilient
Job Openings came in mostly in line with expectations, although slightly slower than the prior month.
PCE Inflation (both headline and core) matched monthly estimates but came in 0.1% higher YoY — at 2.6% and 2.8%, respectively.
Q2 GDP showed a solid 3% increase, but much of the strength came from a surge in exports — something that may not be repeatable in future quarters.
💻 Earnings: Big Tech Delivers
Two of the major mega-cap tech names posted strong results, fueling further stock gains. I’ll cover the remaining tech giants and discuss Friday’s non-farm payrolls during this week’s Friday Live session.
🚨 A Word of Caution: Valuations & Seasonality
Yes, stocks are at all-time highs. But it’s worth noting we’re entering a seasonally weaker part of the year, and a lot of good news is already priced in.
I see some downside risk, especially with stretched valuations and overbought technicals in play.
🔍 Looking Ahead: Key Economic Data This Week
📅 Monday: Durable Goods Orders
📅 Tuesday: ISM Services — Expected to tick up, remaining in expansion
📅 Thursday: Jobless Claims, Unit Labor Costs, Productivity, Consumer Credit
I'm particularly watching the consumer credit data. There’s been a noticeable uptick in credit card delinquencies among high-income households — a trend that could signal cracks under the surface of consumer strength.
Disclosures & Disclaimers
The opinions expressed in this material are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Economic forecasts are inherently uncertain and may not develop as predicted.