Markets closed the week higher, driven by mostly positive economic data. Consumer confidence came in above expectations, likely helped by a cooling of tariff tensions. Durable goods orders weren’t as weak as feared, and the second reading of Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1%—a tenth higher than both expectations and the initial read. For context, a 2% GDP reading aligns with the longer-run average, so anything above that is generally welcomed by economists.
The quarter-over-quarter GDP decline was largely due to a wider trade deficit and a dip in government spending. However, what’s slightly more concerning is the drag from consumer spending—traditionally the engine of U.S. economic growth.
We also saw an uptick in initial jobless claims, a leading indicator for the monthly payroll numbers. This could be noise, but we’ll be watching closely to see if it marks the beginning of a trend.
Below is the chart of the S&P 500. As shown, we’ve retraced roughly 75% of the recent decline. Breaking above last week’s highs and retesting the yearly peak will be an important technical milestone. For now, we believe the market may be entering a consolidation phase in the near term. Still, given how reactive investors are to headlines, upcoming data and trade developments could quickly shift sentiment. Any consolidation could be short-lived. 
📊 Key Economic Data to Watch
This week brings a packed schedule of economic releases—many with the potential to move markets. The focus is squarely on the labor market, with Friday’s non-farm payrolls report at the top of the list. As always, this data will offer critical insight into the strength of the U.S. economy and help shape expectations around Fed policy and market direction.
Here’s what’s on tap:
📅Monday
• ISM Manufacturing PMI – Economists expect a modest rebound, with the index rising 0.8 points to 49.5. While still in contraction territory (below 50), a move higher would signal some stabilization in the industrial sector.
📅Tuesday
• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) – Watch for any shifts in employer demand. The previous reading came in at 7.192 million job openings.
📅Wednesday
• ADP Employment Report – Forecast: +125K jobs. While often a poor predictor of the official payrolls number, it still gives an early read on private-sector hiring.
• ISM Services PMI – Expected to edge up to 52.3, indicating continued expansion in the services sector.
📅Thursday
• Initial Jobless Claims – A closely watched weekly indicator for labor market strength.
• Unit Labor Costs (Q/Q) – A measure of wage pressure that also feeds into inflation expectations.
• Productivity (Q/Q) – Tracks how efficiently labor is being used; higher productivity can ease inflation without slowing growth.
📅Friday
• Non-Farm Payrolls (May) – The headline event. Estimates suggest a slowdown to +125K jobs, a potential sign of cooling momentum in hiring.
• Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) – Forecast to rise 0.3%, up a tenth from the prior month. Wage growth remains a key inflation indicator.
• Unemployment Rate – Expected to inch up to 4.3%, which would mark a slight softening in the labor market.
📺We’ll break it all down in our live session on Friday—don’t miss it.
In the meantime, have questions or insights? Drop a comment below or share this post with someone who’s keeping an eye on the macro picture.
— HPK Provident Advisors
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted