📈 The Week Ahead (March 5, 2026): Market Insights from HPK Provident Advisors
March is off to a difficult start for financial markets, with sell-offs occurring across both equities and fixed income. The war with Iran has now entered its sixth day, with tensions and escalations continuing to build. What was initially viewed as a non-event for stocks is now beginning to generate selling pressure.
Technically, the S&P 500 has broken down from a short-term ascending triangle pattern, which could lead to further downside. If current levels fail to hold, we anticipate the index could decline toward 6,550, the next major support level.
The market’s reaction to geopolitical conflict often depends on the perceived economic impact. In this case, the market appears to be reacting more to an inflation scare than a growth scare. However, the longer the conflict persists, the greater the likelihood that both inflation and growth concerns begin to surface.
While U.S. indices have experienced selling pressure, the declines pale in comparison to those seen in international markets, which have absorbed the brunt of the downturn.
The global conflict has largely overshadowed what has otherwise been decent economic news this week. We saw another strong month for ISM Manufacturing, while ISM Services also came in better than expected. A very welcome surprise was the prices component, which printed well below consensus expectations.
Labor market indicators also exceeded expectations, including both the ADP employment report and the Challenger layoffs report. Friday will bring another major round of economic data, including Non-Farm Payrolls and Retail Sales. We will review those figures in detail during our next Friday Live broadcast.
Looking ahead to next week, markets will receive additional inflation data, with CPI scheduled for Tuesday and the PCE deflator on Friday. Given the recent spike in energy prices, there is a possibility that upcoming inflation readings could come in somewhat elevated.
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— HPK Provident Advisors
Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this material are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and does not guarantee future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Economic forecasts may not develop as predicted.