📈 The Week Ahead (March 13, 2026): Market Insights from HPK Provident Advisors
The S&P 500 is approaching our near-term target, which aligns with the 200-day moving average and the November lows. I expect a bounce there, but the intermediate-term price action could still see further downside in the second quarter. A weakening labor market, escalating geopolitical conflict which raises inflationary risks, and decelerating growth could push prices below the November lows. That kind of stagflationary environment would constrain the Fed’s ability to intervene.
This week’s data was mixed. February CPI was uneventful: core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month, matching consensus and easing by a tenth from last month, while annualized was unchanged year-over-year at 2.5%. The monthly headline reading was 0.3%, a tenth higher than the prior month; annualized, it came in near 2.4%. Core services remained the primary driver keeping inflation elevated.
January’s PCE report was also in line with expectations: core PCE rose 0.36% month-over-month, with the annualized rate ticking up to 3.1%. Headline PCE increased 0.28% for the month and 2.8% annualized. In summary, inflation remains elevated and well above the Fed’s target. In our view, ongoing geopolitical conflict makes this data feel increasingly outdated as a gauge of near-term risk.
The second (final) read of 4Q GDP was weak at 0.7% quarterly, or roughly 2.0% annualized. At the same time, prices paid were notably higher for the quarter—a concerning combination.
We will continue to monitor incoming economic data and developments in the conflict to assess how long this drawdown could persist.
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Disclaimer The opinions expressed in this material are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and does not guarantee future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Economic forecasts may not develop as predicted.