📈 The Week Ahead (May 28th, 2026): Market Insights from HPK Provident Advisors
Heading into the final trading day of the month, equity markets have strung together a second incredible month of gains. The S&P 500 continues to push to new highs, although we are beginning to see some bearish divergence on RSI, which could signal underlying weakness beneath the surface. We are also sitting 8.6% above the 50-day moving average, a level that has historically signaled stretched short-term performance.
Headlines suggesting progress in the war were enough to push markets to fresh weekly highs. Frankly, I’m a little surprised markets are continuing to buy into that narrative given how many times we’ve heard similar headlines before. The bottom line is that movement toward a resolution remains minimal, and with refineries beginning to deplete their pre-war inventories, we could see another run higher in oil prices.
Higher oil prices are likely to keep upward pressure on inflation data. PCE inflation figures showed the headline number coming in at 3.8% on an annualized basis, nearly double the Fed’s target. Stripping out food and energy, core PCE came in at 3.3%. Fed members are increasingly turning hawkish, although it remains to be seen whether that stance will align with the views of the new Fed Chair.
Additional economic data showed the second reading of Q1 GDP coming in above consensus expectations, resulting in growth of 2.6%. While personal spending remained strong, personal income diverged and came in flat for the month. If this trend persists, it could begin creating pressure on the consumer moving forward.
Next week will be an important one for economic data, with non-farm payrolls being released on Friday. Employment numbers have remained solid lately, although they have also been highly volatile throughout 2026. We continue to feel markets are setting up for a breather in the coming weeks, which should present a buyable dip as long as economic data does not begin to materially weaken.
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— HPK Provident Advisors
Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this material are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and does not guarantee future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Economic forecasts may not develop as predicted.