📈 The Week Ahead (March 20, 2026): Market Insights from HPK Provident Advisors
Markets remain singularly focused on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the potential for renewed upward pressure on inflation. This concern is clearly reflected in asset pricing, with both bond yields and oil prices holding near the upper end of their recent ranges.
This week’s PPI report offered little relief. Core PPI came in at 3.9%, while headline PPI rose to 3.4%. These readings are likely to trend higher in the coming months, particularly as elevated oil prices continue to weigh on broader input costs.
The latest FOMC meeting was interpreted as modestly hawkish, though largely in line with expectations. The primary takeaway centered on heightened uncertainty tied to the ongoing conflict. The Fed Chair acknowledged increasing risks to the labor market, while maintaining concern about persistent inflation. Notably, only one committee member supported a rate cut at this meeting. As a result, market expectations have shifted, now pricing in just one rate cut across both 2026 and 2027.
From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 has reached our short-term downside target at the November lows and has now violated its 200-day moving average. This would be a logical level for a bounce, however, we are not ruling out further downside, even in the event of a near-term rebound. The longer the conflict persists, the greater the probability of a stagflationary environment taking hold.
📺 Join Us Live on Facebook — Every Friday
Tune in every Friday at 12:30 p.m. as we break down the week’s market developments and preview what lies ahead, delivering real-time insights and actionable commentary.
— HPK Provident Advisors
Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this material are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and does not guarantee future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Economic forecasts may not develop as predicted.